Federal Fiscal Update–Finance Minister Freeland’s Debut

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland unveiled $51.7 billion of new spending over two years in a mini-budget Monday, led by an enhanced wages subsidy for business. Freeland also pledged, without detailing, another $70 billion to $100 billion of additional stimulus over three years to spur the recovery.

But the finance minister clearly heeded calls for fiscal prudence. She put off any major structural spending announcements, promised any additional stimulus will be temporary and introduced new taxes on digital giants including Netflix, Amazon, and Airbnb, to help pay for it all.

“Our government will make carefully judged, targeted and meaningful investments to create jobs and boost growth,” Freeland said. It will provide “the fiscal support the Canadian economy needs to operate at its full capacity and to stop COVID-19 from doing long-term damage to our economic potential.”

Freeland revised higher the nation’s projected deficit this year to $381.6 billion, or 17.5% of GDP. That’s up from a deficit of 1.7% of GDP last year. According to estimates from the International Monetary Fund, no major economy will show a bigger fiscal swing in 2020.

Based on Monday’s projections, the deficit is seen gradually narrowing to about $51 billion in two years and $25 billion by 2025.

The planned stimulus over the next three years will total no more than 4% of GDP, which the document said is in line with the Bank of Canada’s estimate of the level of slack in the economy. Freeland said, “fiscal guardrails” tied to the labour market would help determine the extent of the additional stimulus.

Among the measures announced today, Freeland boosted the government’s wage subsidy program (Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy, CEWS) to cover as much as 75% of payroll costs for businesses and extended its commercial rent subsidy and lockdown support top-ups until March. Both were slated to run out on December 20. The current cap on CEWS was 65%.

The federal government plans to create a new funding program to help restaurants, tourism companies and other businesses in industries hardest hit by COVID-19.

The Highly Affected Sectors Credit Availability Program (HASCAP), which was announced in the government’s fiscal update Monday, will offer eligible businesses loans of up to $1 million, with a 10-year term.

The money will be lent by banks or other financial institutions, but guaranteed by the federal government.

“We know that businesses in tourism, hospitality, travel, arts and culture have been particularly hard-hit. So we’re creating a new stream of support for those businesses that need it most — a credit availability program with 100-per-cent government-backed loan support and favourable terms for businesses that have lost revenue as people stay home to fight the spread of the virus,” Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said in her prepared speech to the House of Commons.

As a start, the Liberals are proposing in their fiscal update to spend $420 million in grants and bursaries to help provinces and territories train and retain qualified early childhood educators.

The Liberals are also proposing to spend $20 million over five years to build a child-care secretariat to guide federal policy work, plus $15 million in ongoing spending for a similar Indigenous-focused body.

The money is designed to lay the foundation for what will likely be a big-money promise in the coming budget.

Current federal spending on child care expires near the end of the decade, but the Liberals are proposing now to keep the money flowing, starting with $870 million a year in 2028.

There is also money for action on climate change. The government allocated C$2.6 billion in grants for homeowners to improve efficiency and $150 million over three years for electric vehicle charging stations.

The government also detailed some help for the hard-hit tourism sector, including funding for airports. But with Transport Minister Marc Garneau’s negotiations with airlines underway, there is no specific money for carriers including Air Canada and WestJet Airlines Ltd.

Bottom Line

There will continue to be great concern about the largest budget deficits since World War II. Does Canada really need the proportionately largest COVID fiscal response in the industrialized world?  The outlook is somewhat less dire than when the government released a fiscal snapshot in July. The unemployment rate at 8.9% is down materially from May’s 13.7% high but well above February’s 5.6%. The economy recovered ground through the third quarter, although the second wave of pandemic and ensuing restrictions undoubtedly will topple economic activity this quarter.

There is little worry that the government can sustain a massive deficit this year. It can, given low debt levels entering the crisis and historically low interest rates. But now that it has no fiscal guardrails, there’s a risk debt-to-GDP will continue to rise in the medium term if it continues to spend ambitiously.

The government is adding a new revenue source by taxing large digital companies. Still, in time, with this level of spending, they will be tempted to raise taxes on domestic sources, for example, hikes in the GST and higher capital gains taxes. This would be misguided, given the fragility of the recovery.

There is a greater risk that the government is overdoing the stimulus with vaccines on the horizon than undergoing it. Canada’s programs have been generous and household-focused compared to our G7 peers. The government must be strategic in assuring that new program spending is focused on future growth, beyond the pandemic, so that our debt-to-GDP will resume its downward trend. The risk is that once created; it is difficult to rein in spending.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drcooper@dominionlending.ca

Throne Speech:
Canada’s Response to COVID-19

THE FISCAL PICTURE

There was little opposition earlier this year when the federal government backstopped nearly every economic sector through emergency benefits, wage subsidies, and other programs. But with the federal deficit approaching $400 billion, there are growing calls to temper new spending.

The new Finance Minister, Christia Freeland, has consulted with former prime minister Paul Martin, who erased deficits as finance minister more than 20 years ago. And she claimed this week to be “well aware” of concerns about federal spending and the fiscal balance but said getting more people back to work was a top priority, along with managing a second wave of COVID-19 infections.

“The single most important economic policy of our government and the best thing we can do for our economy is to keep coronavirus under control,” Freeland said. “I can’t emphasize that too much. Some people sometimes like to talk about a trade-off between good health policy and good economic policy. I could not disagree more strongly.”

Today’s throne speech is one of the most highly-anticipated throne speeches in recent memory–amid a slowing economic recovery and rising COVID case counts. Though not an economic blueprint, it lays out Ottawa’s vision for what policy supports it believes are needed to carry the country through the next phase of recovery.

Measures already floated include improved permanent support for the unemployed–building on exceptional levels of policy support delivered over the spring and summer. Estimates for how much all of that will cost will await a fall fiscal update and subsequent budget.

COVID-19 CASE COUNTS TICK HIGHER AS THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY SLOWS
A barrage of reports issued in the past week reinforced what will probably be a historically large, and yet still only partial, bounce-back in economic activity over the summer in Canada. Home resales surged again in August. Reports on retail, wholesale, and manufacturing trade for July left GDP still on track to rebound 40% (at an annualized rate) in the third quarter. But that would only retrace only about 57% of the decline over the first half of the year. And early data – including Royal Bank’s tracking of credit card purchases–continue to flag a slowing pace of recovery.

Meantime, virus case counts are being watched more closely again in Canada, given a faster uptick in recent weeks, particularly in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta. This latest wave of infections has been more concentrated among less vulnerable age cohorts, meaning fewer hospitalizations. Still, easing in containment measures has already been paused, and in some spots, reversed. At a minimum, the increased spread is another reminder that there are limits to how much the economy will recover while the virus threat remains.

In today’s speech from the throne, the Governor General was expected to lay out the government’s vision for the pandemic recovery. It won’t be easy, with COVID-19 cases on the rise and investor confidence wobbling. While the economy has improved since April lows, the recovery continues to be fragile–especially in the face of a possible second wave. Where should the government focus its investments? And if it survives the confidence vote, what could we expect in its next budget?

Trudeau insisted that he does not want a campaign soon — but would be ready if necessary. “I think it’s irresponsible to say that an election would be irresponsible,” Trudeau told reporters. “Our country and our institutions are stronger than that, and if there has to be an election, we’ll figure it out.”

“I don’t think that’s what Canadians want. I don’t think that’s what opposition parties want, and it’s certainly not what the government wants.”

A MATTER OF CONFIDENCE

Regardless of how many specifics or dollar figures are in the speech from the throne, it will be a confidence test for the Trudeau government, 15 seats shy of a majority in the House of Commons.

Without support from one major opposition party, an election is likely. But it’s not clear if that’s the kind of reset button opposition leaders are ready to press.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh wants a pledge to extend the Canada Emergency Response Benefit while the Employment Insurance system is reformed. And he wants a clear pledge to extend access to paid sick leave.

Singh told CPAC he heard no specific commitments from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau when the two spoke last week. But he will be watching for signals from the government, not just in the speech itself, but in the debate and legislation that follows.

From new Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, recently given a positive COVID-19 diagnosis: “Let’s see the plan, and if it’s for the betterment of the country, we’ll support parts of that plan. If we don’t see it, we’ll put forward our own vision”.

The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, has threatened to try and force an election over the WE affair unless Trudeau steps down. And the party wants increased health care transfers to the provinces, more support for seniors, respect for Quebec jurisdictions, and support for supply-managed farmers.

But their leader will not be on Parliament Hill as the House of Commons resumes; Yves-François Blanchet has tested positive for COVID-19 and tweeted Tuesday that he and O’Toole would wait to give their formal replies to the speech until after their isolation periods had ended.

ACTUAL MEASURES IN THE THRONE SPEECH

Overcoming pandemic is the key theme of the speech. COVID-19 has been incredibly hard for parents, especially women, young people, older adults, and Black and racialized Canadians. Low wage earners have been hardest hit.

Fight the pandemic and save lives

• Faster testing, short-term closure orders in high-case areas
• Help businesses in those areas
• Additional PPE funding
• More funding to keep schools safe
• Vaccine strategy
• Immunity task force led by scientists

Supporting Canadians Through this Crisis

• Emergency Wage Subsidy extended
• Job loss supports
• Government creates jobs, assists training, youth employment strategy,
• CERB recipients now supported by EI system–broadened to include self-employed and gig workers
• Action Plan for women–child care services, create a Canada-wide early childhood education system, after school programs, support for women entrepreneurs.
• Aid to small businesses
• Improve business credit, assistance to sectors hardest hit

Build back better to create a more resilient Canada

• Stimulus for recovery that is done prudently
• Reduce income inequality by raising taxes stock options and wealth
• Increase taxes on the digital giants that do business in Canada
• Defend the strength of the middle class
• Fighting climate change and commitment to sustainable growth
• Long-term care homes assistance, new standards for care
• Increase Old Age Security at age 75
• Primary care physicians for every region
• Mental Health resources increased
• National Universal Pharmacare
• Telemedicine
• Limiting firearms
• National Action Plan on gender-based violence
• Affordable housing growth
• All Canadians have access to highspeed internet
• Affordable regional air services
• Eliminate chronic homelessness
• Enhance First-time homebuyer incentive
• Address food insecurity and enhance local food supply chains, protect food workers
• Support farmers
• Introduce the most extensive training and education and accreditation programs in Canadian history
• Create good jobs in climate action sectors
• Exceed Canada’s 2030 climate goals
• More transit options, zero-emissions vehicles and batteries, electric charging stations
• Cut corporate tax rate in half for clean technology companies
• Support natural resource and oil companies as they move towards zero-emission and clean-energy goals
• Ban single-use plastics next year
• Clean water and irrigation plans

Stand up for who we are as Canadians–welcoming and fights discrimination

• We take care of each other, welcome newcomers, embrace two official languages
• Address systemic racism
• Help Indigenous, First Nations, and Mate peoples
• Take action on online hate, support employment of Blacks and racialized people
• Reform criminal justice system and law enforcement
• Encourage immigration and family unification
• Invest more in developing economies
• Support human rights, bring detained Canadians home

BOTTOM LINE

This is an ambitious agenda. Many of these proposals are sweeping commitments. Spending details will come later, likely in a fiscal update in November or December.

The speech did not extend the CERB, which the NDP said was a condition of support. Also, the NDP asked for paid sick leave, which was not mentioned.

Quickly following the speech,  the Conservatives’ initial response was that they could not support this proposal. Among other things, they berated that there was no fiscal framework or anchor to prevent further downgrades of Canadian credit ratings. According to deputy leader Candice Bergen, Conservatives will not support a speech from the throne filled with “buzzwords” and “grand gestures” that ignores the ailing energy sector, farmers, the unemployed, and struggling small business owners.

The political posturing will continue.

In the next week, the speech will be debated, during which time, the government can make changes.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other party leaders will address the nation at 6:30 pm ET/3:30 pm PT tonight.

Canada’s Economy Plunged 11.6% in April

Services-producing sectors recorded a 9.7% drop, led by retail trade and transportation. Goods-producing industries saw a 17% decline in output. The economy at the end of April was 18.2% lower than its February level, the month before the COVID-19 measures began.

Nothing like this has ever happened in our lifetimes; we are in uncharted territory, and the virus will determine the future course of the economy. Policymakers in Canada have done a commendable job in cushioning the blow of the lockdown and its lasting impact on the economy. Importantly, Canada has posted a sustained decline in the number of cases owing to the enforced lockdown measures. Canada’s success is in direct contrast to the disastrous surge in COVID cases in roughly 20 US states where the economy opened prematurely, and public health initiatives were grossly mismanaged. It is crucial, however, that we not assume the worst is over and let down our guard. The World Health Organization said yesterday that “the worst was yet to come.” Moreover, the timing of a vaccine is unknown, and Canada remains susceptible to contamination from incoming American truckers, travellers and virus spread if we open too quickly.

Highlights of the economic contraction in April were:

• Air transportation plummeted 93.7%, reflecting the reduced movement of both goods and passengers.
• Accommodation and food services dropped 42.4%, following a 37.1% decline in March. The sector was down a whopping 64% from its level of activity in February.
• Real estate declined 3.5% in April following a 1.2% decline in March. Activity at the offices of real estate agents and brokers plunged 57.2% in April, as home resale activity in nearly all major urban centres came to a standstill.
• Personal and laundry services (provided by hair salons, beauty parlours, funeral homes, dry cleaners, etc.) dropped 39.3%, while private household services offered by maids, cooks, gardeners, etc. fell more than one-third.

The good news is that StatsCan said today that preliminary information indicates an approximate 3.0% increase in real GDP for May. Output across several industrial sectors–including manufacturing, retail and wholesale as well as the public sector (health, education and public administration)–increased in May, as activities gradually resumed in phases in different regions of the country.

Consumer Providing Support 

On a more positive note, the economists at Royal Bank reported yesterday that personal spending had rebounded sharply since early April, judging by debit and credit card purchases (see chart below). Overall card volumes were near year-earlier levels by June 16th, down 2% year-over-year. Reopening across the country spurred spending at clothing stores and on personal services such as haircuts and massages. Early indications suggest online shopping remains popular despite the opening of bricks and mortar stores.

The reopening of the economy, along with federal government income support, has boosted consumer confidence and spending. The Canadian Emergency Response Benefit program (CERB) provides eligible consumers who had stopped working because of COVID $2,000 per four-week period. Trudeau recently extended the CERB from 16 weeks to 20 weeks.

Consumer confidence has climbed for nine straight weeks according to the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index, a weekly composite measure of financial health and economic expectations. The index currently stands at 46. That’s up nearly 10 points from early May and is slowly nearing the 50-point mark, above which views are considered to be net positive.

One unintended problem, however, is that the CERB is becoming a disincentive to work. If a recipient earns more than $1,000 per month, he or she loses the full $2,000 payment. Also, for some, the CERB allotment is more than they earned at their previous job, so they are reluctant to return to work when their businesses open. The stipend is now making it difficult for restaurants, retail stores, cleaning services and trades to get their workers back. The government needs to start winding down direct cash support, but instead, it extended the payments until the end of August.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drcooper@dominionlending.ca